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HomeGeopolitical CompassWest & Centeral AsiaIran, US conflict shrouded in the fog of war

Iran, US conflict shrouded in the fog of war

Authors: Omar Ahmed

Organization/Publisher: Middle East Monitor

Affiliation: Middle East Monitor 

Date/Place: January 15, 2020, U.K.

Type of Literature: Analysis

Word Count: 1687

Link:https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200115-iran-us-conflict-shrouded-in-the-fog-of-war/

Keywords: Soleimani, US, Iran, Fog of war, Assassination

Brief:

The illegitimate killing of General Qassem Soleimani and retaliation from Iran by striking two US-military bases with multiple missiles, created a fog of war. As both sides opted de-escalation, the war arena is now clear to analyze facts. As claimed by the author, Iran successfully demonstrated its ability to retaliate against American military hardware by striking two key bases in Iraq. During conflict-escalation after the assassination of Soleimani, it was claimed by Arab news that the drone was controlled from Al-Udeid Air base, Qatar; but, later-on IRGC accused four military bases being involved in assassinating Soleimani: i.e. two destroyed bases in Iraq, two American bases in Jordan and Kuwait respectively. The Trump administration miscalculated the Iranian response, and therefore avoided further escalation after the Iranian retaliatory strikes on American military machinery in Iraq. Throughout this active hostility, Tehran had the upper hand over Washington but for the downing of Ukrainian Airliner. According to the author, Russia provided Israel the codes of its Air defense system installed in Iran in 2017 and it is possible that the commercial flight’s transponder was hacked. But still Iranian authorities are responsible for not declaring a no-fly zone over Iran when they were perceiving a counter strike from the US. Moreover, Trump also selected the last option from all the options provided by the Pentagon in killing Soleimani, to minimize the impeachment pressure from Capitol Hill. The author concludes that it is the beginning of an end to the U.S. presence in West Asia, and Iran must enhance its capabilities of deterrence. 

By: Muhammad Taimoor Bin Tanveer, CIGA Research Associate.

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