Authors: Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Affiliation: Atlantic Council
Organization/Publisher: Atlantic Council
Date/Place: April 23, 2020, US
Type of Literature: Report
Number of Pages: 16
Keywords: Pandemic, United States, China, Scenarios, POST-COVID-19.
Brief:
The Coronavirus Pandemic has sent substantial shockwaves to the global order, established by the United States and its allies. America and its partners had for the past 75 years led a rules-based system, founded on liberal democratic values, an open global economy and formal institutional bodies backed by powerful democratic States. But Coronavirus challenges this whole system. The fall of the Western system can lead to the rise of China though. The international organizations are becoming weak and the borders are being closed inwards too. In such an atmosphere, this paper details three scenarios for the possible direction of the global system Post-COVID-19. The scenarios are important in that they help to reduce the scope of possibilities, decrease the uncertainty and make the different options more visible. The first scenario is Great Accelerator Downwards. While the poverty levels are increasing in the developing world, there is potential for open conflict between the United States and China-Russia alliance. The second scenario is China First. For the many countries outside Europe, the United States appears in sharp decline. Despite China’s responsibility for this outbreak, the pandemic has tilted the geopolitical balance in its favour. The third and the last scenario is the New Renaissance. China after international pressure has permanently closed its wild animal markets and reforms its laws to prohibit livestock in dense urban areas. Dealing with these global challenges brings together the Unites States, China, EU and other States.
By: Saima Rashid, CIGA Research Assistant
