Author(s): Ben Fishman and Conor Hiney
Affiliation: The Washington Institute
Organization/Publisher: The Washington Institute
Pub. Date/Place: May 6, 2020/ Washington, D.C., USA
Type of Literature: Analysis
Words Count: 1367
Link: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/what-turned-the-battle-for-tripoli
Key Words: Turkish drones, GNA, LNA, Military
Brief
This analysis argues that military technology could turn the strategic game for the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya. Two main strategic factors that enabled the GNA to reconvene back on the battlefield were the military tactics with the lack of manning in the Libyan National Army (LNA) that coincided with the reduction of Russian Wagner Group private military contractors, and the high military technology used against the LNA bloc in Libya. While six regions surrounding Tripoli were under LNA control in the past year, the air war tactics with the Turkish supplied weapons at the beginning of this year enabled the GNA to retake control over the capital periphery of Tripoli. Each local block with its backer will determine the next phase, however the face-off of external calculus will lead the local actors to a political resolution. Neither Turkish military technology can enable the GNA for more offensive operations beyond the northwest, nor the UAE’s weapons can make a decisive impact on the GNA since both suppliers have a limited extent of using these weapons in terms of quality and tactics. In this case, potential military risks will strike both sides in terms of casualties and losses, which will lead to a limited low-cost option that will bring the locals and their external backers to a political resolution.
By: Imad Atoui, CIGA Research Associate
