Author: Cary Huang
Affiliation: South China Morning Post
Date/Place: May 17, 2020/Hong Kong
Type of Literature: In-depth Report
Word Count: 1261
Keywords: China, Coronavirus, COVID 19, global economy, China-US Relations, post-pandemic recovery
The author considers whether China will emerge stronger or weaker in the great power struggle with the United States after the coronavirus. There are two scenarios after the virus. First, China could close in on the United States GDP. It could achieve parity or even surpass the US in the next 10 years. Second, China could see itself quickly regress on the back of heightened geopolitical concerns and decoupling from the international economy. The author is not optimistic about China being able to continue its meteoritic rise over the next 10 years. He argues that over the last 10 years, China’s economy has been slowing down. The new trade war with the US along with Japanese and EU companies pulling out due to disrupted supply chains will have a devastating effect. There are major geopolitical concerns with a rich and powerful China. The ability to pull past the US will not happen smoothly and China will have to pay the costs. The West is following the US in attempting to pull away from China. The impact of America’s campaign against China will act like a catalyst to already creeping economic problems. In the end, the author suggests that both the US and China will mutually harm each other. The economic concerns will follow the geopolitical rivalry between two great powers. Every inch of economic growth from here on out will have to be wrestled from the US by tooth and nail. It is unclear whether the Chinese are up for the challenge. If the author is correct then we are headed into a cold war where the US and China will escalate tensions and try to harm each other.
By: M. Üveys Han, Senior Research Associate