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HomeGeopolitical CompassWest & Centeral AsiaThe Islamic State Factor: How Long Can The Taliban Government Survive?

The Islamic State Factor: How Long Can The Taliban Government Survive?

Author: Dr. Saleem Javed

Affiliation: Freelance writer and human rights activist 

Organization/Publisher: The Friday Times

Date/Place: October 17, 2021/Lahore, Pakistan

Type of Literature: Article 

Word Count: 1400


Keywords: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Taliban, The US



The article is a political reflection on the Taliban’s formation of an interim government in Afghanistan post US withdrawal. The author explains the contours of Kabul’s fall and the formality of the Taliban taking control of Afghanistan, including the operation in Panjshir Valley to eliminate the opposition factions from the northern outskirts of the capital. The analysis elaborates on international concerns over the distribution of ministries among the different Taliban groups to sustain internal unity, specifically between the Haqqanis and Doha group. Furthermore, according to the author, in order to secure international recognition, the Taliban must include different ethnic groups (Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek) in mainstream politics while providing equal support and space across the board (and include at least one woman). The terrorist activities by Islamic State of Khurasan (IS-K), is questioning the resolve of the Taliban to maintain peace in Afghanistan. Moreover, minority ethnic groups like the Hazaras are continuously experiencing victimization by IS-K in the post-US withdrawal Afghanistan. Meanwhile, if the government remains in isolation internationally, it can expect to lose the already limited support from states that want it to implement the Doha Accord. The worsening economic condition may compel the current interim government to rethink the cabinet formation by inviting diverse ethnic and religious groups of Afghanistan. Whereas, if the current set-up prevails, then the survival of its internal unity will be difficult without a larger international support. 


By: Muhammad Taimoor Bin Tanveer, CIGA Senior Research Associate



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