Author: Nael Shama
Affiliation: Freelancer
Organization/Publisher: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Date/Place: December 23, 2019, Doha.
Type of Literature: Report
Number of Pages: 14
Keywords: Geopolitics, Eastern Mediterranean, Military cooperation, Maritime Conflict, and Natural Gas Reserves
Brief:
The report elaborates on the geopolitical situation in the Eastern Mediterranean in light of the latest tensions, which came to the surface recently between Turkey, Egypt and Greece. Through drawing the geopolitical map and highlighting ‘sources of tension’, the author provides future scenarios. The author clarifies the main sources of disputes between different actors in the region including the Turkish-Cypriot territory dispute and Arab-Israeli conflict. Then, the report underlines the ‘conflicting interests’ in the region which undermines its stability. It also refers to the high militarization of the Mediterranean, which increases the possibility of escalation in the region. It emphasizes that the establishment of the “East Mediterranean Gas Forum” (EMGF) prolongs polarization instead of resolving the deadlock situation. The author concludes that Mediterranean security is a focal point regarding the stability of the Middle East and Europe. Although an “all-out military” confrontation is not currently anticipated, a “limited-military” action or escalation is probable. The report claims that Turkey will continue in its increasing assertion of its interests – especially energy interests – in the region if other actors follow up with their strategy to exclude it. Finally, the author calls for real confidence-building strategies to maintain stability and avoid further violence in the region. Accordingly, “effective, balanced, and binding political agreements, which encompass all different actors, are required instead of such forums as the EMGF.
By: Yomna Süleyman, CIGA Research Assistant