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Libya’s Future | With or Without a Turkish Military Presence?

Author: Murat Aslan 
Affiliation: Hasan Kalyoncu University (Gaziantep, Turkey)

Organization/Publisher: SETA 

Date/Place: June 2, 2021/Istanbul, Turkey

Type of Literature: Analysis 

Number of Pages: 16 

Keywords: Turkey, Libya, Russia


In this article, the author weighs in on the future of Libya and the role different stakeholders play in realizing different outcomes. Western states have four interests there: the mercenaries and foreign military presence in Libya, the flow of immigrants towards Europe, the upcoming elections, and business opportunities that may arise out of the success of the elections. There is also a desire to make Russia and Turkey leave the area. The author identifies how the Turkish intervention has been at the behest of the rightful authority in Libya and has contributed to stability in the North. The UAE’s financing and backing of both Haftar and Russian militias (Wagner group) has greatly destabilized the region. France has been covertly and overtly supporting Haftar as it sees him as a way to regulate their colonial interests in Africa. Turkey’s involvement has helped the GNA to stem the power of the armed militias. This stabilization can lead to the upcoming elections transferring power legitimately and stopping Haftar’s bloodshed. A political solution would also be in the interest of the West as it will alleviate the refugee crisis. 


By: Sahar Sadiq, CIGA Research Intern



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