Authors: Amr Adly, Muhammad Alaraby, Ibrahim Awad
Affiliation: The American University in Cairo, Bibliotheca Alexandrina-Center for Strategic Studies, American University in Cairo
Organization/Publisher: Carnegie Middle East Center
Date/Place: February 5, 2021/Beirut, Lebanon
Type of Literature: Article
Word Count: 2973
Keywords: Conflict, Arab States, Economy, Post-War
Brief:
Post-conflict reconstruction is based on a mix of political and economic factors, with the outcome decided by post-war stabilization prospects with regional and international actors behind them. The geo-economic scope will determine the scale and success of reconstruction, but may fuel rivalries and influence alliances. Rebuilding in post-war conditions requires sustainable economic recovery, the main prerequisites being the availability of resources, the way conflicts end, the nature of post-war political processes and pre-war economic structures. Middle Eastern countries that are in conflict have dim prospects for rebuilding, in no small part due to pre-war political and economic structures. Syria and Yemen lack resources and depend on foreign finances; they are deeply fragmented with imposed sanctions and suffer from external intervention by neighboring powers. Even an oil rich country like Libya suffers from fragmentation of state body and security, and its pre-war economic structure doesn’t facilitate effective reconstruction as it was dependent on energy exports. Iraq is relatively more promising with its rich resources, yet ethno-sectarianism and being at the center of the US-Iran tension dims positive prospects. Such ongoing geopolitical rivalry ruins the reconstruction processes, and may fuel more rivalries between actors.
By: Omar Fili, CIGA Research Assistant