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China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power

Author: David Dollar, Yiping Huang, and Yang Yao

Affiliation:  Foreign Policy, Peking University

Organization/Publisher: Brookings

Date/Place: January 2020, Washington, DC

Type of Literature: Report

Number of Pages: 13


Key words: Economic growth; Chinese Two Centennial Goals; Economic Policies& Reforms; Economic Challenges.


This report is written based on a forthcoming book “China 2049: Economic Challenges of a Rising Global Power” (Brookings Institution Press, May 2020). China, despite being on track to becoming the next economic superpower, faces a large number of challenges: rivalry with the US and other established powers, aging population, environmental skepticism, innovation, consumption demand, and social welfare expenditures. The report highlights the important findings of the forthcoming book that examines whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform as it moves toward the 100th anniversary of the Communist revolution. Based on the Chinese government’s “Two Centennial Goals,” which are to double the 2010 GDP and per capita income by 2021, and to make a prosperous, powerful, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious China by the year 2049, it seems that this country has already achieved its first Centennial Goal as its GDP grew by 7.4% per annum between 2010 and 2018. However, for its second Centennial Goal, it faces greater uncertainties. For this purpose, this report takes stock of the new economic challenges for China over the upcoming three decades. 


By: Abdullah Jurat, CIGA Research Associate



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