Author: Robert D. Kaplan
Affiliation: The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), The Atlantic.
Organization/Publisher: The National Interest
Date/Place: January 19, 2020, U.S.
Type of Literature: Analysis
Word count: 1250
Link:https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-china-cold-war-will-be-different-114986
Keywords: The U.S.-China Rivalry, The Original Cold War, The Second Cold War, Geography, The Liberal Values Versus Intrusive Technologies.
Brief:
The author describes here the U.S.-China rivalry that has been going on for years, as a second cold war, but it will be a different war in many ways compared to the original Cold War that was facing the Soviet Union. There are a set of differences that make the current rivalry different from its predecessor during the original Cold War days, they could be identified in four elements: Geography and History, the nature of technological production, the nature of rivalry itself, and the nature of diplomacy pursued. First, the Soviet Union was surrounded by ice for most of the year, with few natural resources, just as Russia was a land power with vast unsecured borders. This geography negatively affected the national spirit of the Russians throughout their history and infused it with weakness and cynicism. While China has rich resource geography, a good climate, and a 900-mile stretch of coast, overlooking major shipping lanes in the world, which has made it able to be both a land and sea power. It also has a long history (3,500 years) of ruling dynasties, inherited by a solid institutional system and greater self-confidence than Russia. Second, Russia produces a few exportable consumer goods, while China today surpasses the United States in production, thanks to huge companies such as Huawei ($ 122 billion in revenue in 2019). Third, the first cold war was mainly about achieving nuclear supremacy, while the second cold war would mainly revolve around the dominance on the cyber space and the ability of both Washington and Beijing to use this advantage in their naval warfare. Fourth, during the original Cold War, Kissinger worked diplomatically to bring China closer in order to balance against the Soviets, but, there is less hope in approaching Russia to balance against China today, given the current alliance of the two sides unlike the situation in 1969. Moreover, the diplomatic efforts of the original Cold War days were traditional, broad and multi-agendas, while Trump today focuses his diplomatic efforts on one narrow issue of trade, which would hinder any diplomatic progress between Washington and Beijing on other important issues. Finally, Kaplan believes that Washington can achieve a negative victory in this second cold war: “Not defeating the Chinese, but waiting them out, just as we waited out the Soviets, because at some point, mainland China may face its own equivalent of the internal upheavals”. Therefore, Washington should focus on the similarities between the two cold wars, not the differences, as it needs to push for a broad and open dialogue that enables it to use the issue of human rights against China with an emphasis on liberal values in the face of Chinese intrusive technologies.
By: Djallel Khechib, CIGA Senior Research Associate
