Türkiye in the South Caucasus: A Hesitant Power (EUISS’s Türkiye’s Cards in the World -Chapter 2)

Summary:

Ondřej Ditrych’s book chapter “Türkiye in the South Caucasus: A hesitant power” discusses Türkiye’s evolving geopolitical role and ambitions in the South Caucasus region, focusing on its interactions with the nations of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. It begins by highlighting the historical and cultural ties between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, emphasizing their shared language and ethnicity, which are encapsulated in the concept of “one nation, two states.” Their close relationship is especially underscored by Türkiye’s unwavering support for Azerbaijan, particularly in its prolonged conflict with Armenia.

The chapter further traces Türkiye’s historical engagement in the South Caucasus, starting from the Ottoman Empire’s rivalry with Persia and Imperial Russia. After the Soviet Union’s dissolution in the early 1990s, Türkiye quickly recognized the independence of the newly formed states of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. It aimed to establish a network of influence in the region, countering Iranian ambitions while navigating Russian dominance. Despite these efforts, Russia’s significant influence constrained Türkiye’s ambitions and limited its support for Azerbaijan.

However, in recent years, Türkiye has capitalized on Russia’s waning influence to expand its own footprint. This was particularly marked by Türkiye’s direct involvement in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. This conflict was a turning point, showcasing its more assertive stance in supporting Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the chapter argues that Türkiye remains hesitant to pursue its regional interests due to several constraining factors. These include deference to Russia’s concerns, prioritizing Azerbaijan’s interests over its own in the unresolved Armenia conflict, domestic economic challenges, and the need to navigate a complex local political landscape.

Economically, traditional indicators such as trade volume and foreign direct investment (FDI) suggest a modest Turkish presence in the South Caucasus compared to Russia and China. Notably, Türkiye’s FDI in Azerbaijan is significantly lower than Azerbaijan’s investment in Türkiye, and there is a trend of declining investment in Georgia. However, these figures do not fully capture Türkiye’s regional ambitions and strategic vision, which are most clearly articulated in the Middle Corridor project, which builds upon existing east-west infrastructure. This project aims to enhance connectivity between Türkiye and the Caspian Sea basin through Georgia and Azerbaijan, forming a crucial part of Türkiye’s broader strategy and providing an alternative to Russian-dominated routes. Despite the current adverse circumstances, such as inadequate land infrastructure and the sea being the primary mode of cargo shipment, Türkiye sees the Middle Corridor as a vital link for its economic and strategic interests. The efficiency of this transport route could be significantly improved by opening transportation links between Türkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, particularly through the development of a modern road and a restored railway connection along Armenia’s Syunik province, which Türkiye and Azerbaijan refer to as the “Zangezur Corridor”. The chapter discusses the potential benefits of improved infrastructure, which could facilitate direct links between Türkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, fostering regional integration and economic growth.

A comprehensive peace agreement following Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, which would lead to normalized relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as well as Türkiye and Armenia, is seen as beneficial for Türkiye. This would include reopening closed borders, but Ankara has been reluctant to pressure Azerbaijan to remove conditions that grant Russia border control as per the defunct 2020 ceasefire agreement.

Türkiye’s relationship with Azerbaijan is portrayed as a cornerstone of its South Caucasus policy. The chapter notes that the two countries share a deep bond rooted in ethnic and linguistic commonalities, which has translated into robust political and military cooperation. Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts, especially the decisive Second Karabakh War in 2020, is highlighted as a key example of this alliance. Victory in this war not only reinforced Türkiye’s standing in Azerbaijan but also showcased its growing influence in the South Caucasus.

The chapter provides an insightful analysis of Türkiye’s complex relationship with Armenia. Historical animosities, primarily stemming from the events of 1915, continue to cast a long shadow over bilateral relations. Despite these tensions, there have been intermittent attempts at normalization, such as the Zurich Protocols in 2009, which ultimately failed due to domestic and regional opposition. The recent developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the potential for a comprehensive peace agreement present a new opportunity for rapprochement. However, Türkiye’s cautious stance reflects its prioritization of strategic interests and the need to navigate its alliance with Azerbaijan.

Türkiye’s engagement with Georgia is portrayed as strategically and economically motivated. Georgia serves as a crucial transit country for Türkiye’s energy and transportation projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor. The aforementioned Middle Corridor initiative also relies heavily on Georgia’s cooperation. Despite these economic ties, the chapter notes that Türkiye’s investment in Georgia has been declining, highlighting the need for a more consistent economic strategy to bolster its influence.

A significant portion of the chapter is dedicated to exploring the geopolitical constraints that shape Türkiye’s policies in the South Caucasus. Russia’s historical and ongoing influence in the region is identified as a primary limiting factor. Despite recent tensions between Ankara and Moscow, Türkiye has been careful to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, opting instead for a more nuanced approach that balances cooperation and competition.

The chapter also addresses Türkiye’s domestic challenges, including economic instability and political dynamics, which impact its foreign policy decisions. These internal factors often necessitate a cautious approach and limit Türkiye’s ability to fully assert its ambitions in the South Caucasus.

The chapter in general provides a comprehensive analysis of Türkiye’s evolving role in the South Caucasus. It highlights the country’s strategic ambitions, the constraints it faces, and the opportunities it seeks to exploit. While Türkiye has made significant strides in asserting its influence, particularly through its alliance with Azerbaijan and strategic projects like the Middle Corridor, it remains a hesitant power that is constrained by geopolitical realities and domestic challenges. The chapter underscores the importance of a nuanced and balanced approach in navigating the complex political landscape of the South Caucasus, emphasizing the potential for greater regional integration and cooperation if Türkiye can successfully manage these dynamics.

By: Saima Rashid, CIGA Research Associate