Author: Ryan Costello
Affiliation: NIAC Policy Director
Organization/Publisher: Responsible Statecraft
Date/Place: January 4, 2020
Type of Literature: Analysis
Word count: 802
Keywords: Iran, U.S., Qassem Soleimani, Trump
Brief:
Ryan Costello argues that Trump’s order for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force commander, is a reckless and calculated provocation. Anticipating a potential reprisal from Iran, it puts the U.S. forces on high-alert across the region. The justifications from the Trump administration are doubtful, and apparently, they are lying. The author underlines the unnecessity of Soleimani’s killing by quoting the former intelligence analyst Jon Bateman: “killing Soleimani would be neither necessary nor sufficient to disrupt the operational progression of an imminent plot. What it might do instead is shock Iran’s decision calculus.” While Trump was talking to his guests at Mar-a-Lago about his surprise for Iran, the U.S. administration kept the Congress out of this plan that is risking a nasty war without any plausible explanation. Costello considers the Trump administration lying to Americans as similar to the George W. Bush 2003 Iraq invasion playbook. For him, Mike Pence’s attempts of linking Soleimani to the September 11 attacks are a bizarre lie. There are strong arguments emphasizing on Soleimani’s role to defeat ISIS. Experts like Pouya Alimagham considered him to be a key element to stop ISIS in the region. He was certainly a key player at the local and regional level. Just like the Bush administration’s Iraq delusion of 2003, it seems that the Trump administration is in a massive muck which certainly the local people in the region will pay the higher cost.
By: Abdullah Jurat, CIGA Research Associate
