Author: Fatiha Dazi-Héni
Affiliation: IRSEM (Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School, Paris, France)
Organization/Publisher: Arab Reform Initiative
Date/Place: November 6, 2020/Paris, France
Type of Literature: Research Paper
Number of Pages: 9
Link: https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/the-gulf-states-and-israel-after-the-abraham-accords/
Keywords: Israel, Gulf States, UAE, Bahrain, Abraham Accords.
Brief:
Fatiha Dazi-Héni in her paper analyses the Abraham Accords signed between Israel, UAE, and Bahrain on 15 September 2020, its motives, realities, and future scenarios. The Abraham Accords are bilateral agreements between Israel and these two Gulf states on security, economic, and strategic interests. They are distinctive from peace agreements previously signed with Egypt and Jordan. To a great extent, they ignore the Palestinian question and they provide Israel with privileged access to the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf. Fatiha raises many questions regarding the motives and expectations of UAE and Bahrain, the significance of normalization agreements with Israel, and the impact of them on US policy towards the Middle East. She illustrates the context and the conditions of rapprochement of Gulf states with Israel. The Iranian threat was a common ground between the different actors that encouraged rapprochement between Israel and Gulf countries including UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. She claims that the refrain of the US from engaging in conflicts in the region, its failures to stabilize it, as well as the worries about the US presidential elections were other reasons behind the normalization paradigm. On the other hand, the author proposes that Bahrain was pressured by Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) and Trump to go for this agreement against the public will of its politicized population. However, its normalization role is significant since it acts as a political channel between S.A and Israel. By contrast, the Saudi’s position is confused between the distinct views of King Salman and MBS towards normalization. The latter is continuously pushing for more than normalization agreements. Differently, Kuwait chooses to resist such normalization due to the centrality of the Palestinian question to its public. Qatar never considered maintaining relations with Israel as problematic and continues playing the mediation role between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority while keeping a political channel with Israel. Finally, Oman’s influence is weakened due to its internal crisis, and even its role of mediation between Iran and the US is currently diminished. In conclusion, these accords are providing Israel with significant access to the region. Besides, many economic and infrastructure projects are arranged between Israel and UAE. While these accords are considered by the US as a neutralizing means to Iran’s threat, they seem to cause problems in the long term since they were concluded against the public will of Gulf countries. Moreover, the public protest against these accords might even affect the Emirati and Bahraini policies on the short-term.
By: Yomna Süleyman, CIGA Research Assistant
