Normalization of Relations Between Arab States and the Zionist Regime and Its Consequences for Iran’s National Security

Summary:

This scholarly article offers an examination of the intricate dynamics of the diplomatic normalization between Arab nations and the Zionist regime. The authors analyze historical, political, economic, and military factors to provide a multifaceted perspective on the issue. In doing so, the article aims to illuminate the underlying causes and potential consequences of this significant geopolitical realignment, with a particular focus on its implications for Iran’s national security.

In the first section of the article, the authors highlight how relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Zionist regime have evolved over time, emphasizing their complex historical background. The key factors that have shaped these relations include the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, the lack of an agreement between Palestine and the Zionist regime, as well as Iran’s growing influence in the region. The study argues that the changing dynamics in the ‘Middle East’, such as the end of Saddam Hussein’s rule in Iraq and the Arab Spring uprisings, have led to a shift in priorities for the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. Consequently, the Palestinian issue has become less significant, causing Arab countries to forge alliances with the Zionist regime, despite their ideological contradictions, in order to address the perceived threat posed by Iran’s growing power.

Building their analysis on neoclassical realism and Randall Schweller’s ‘balance of interest’ approach, the authors try to contextualize the Arab-Israeli alliance within the broader historical trajectory of relations between Arab states and Israel, tracing their evolution from a state of direct confrontation to an increasing inclination towards cooperation. The authors stress the pivotal role that shared security concerns, particularly regarding Iran’s expanding regional influence, have played in catalyzing this shift in the geopolitical landscape. By situating the Arab-Israeli alliance within this historical context, the article tries to offer a nuanced understanding of the factors that have contributed to its emergence.

The paper asserts that Schweller’s ‘balance of theory’ aligns more closely with democratic peace theory than does the balance of power theory, offering a broader analytical framework than the ones put forth by prominent theorists such as Kenneth Waltz and John Mearsheimer. Citing Iranian International Relations theorist Homeira Moshirzadeh, the paper further contends that governments shape their behavior around their interests, that is to say, as long as their interests are fulfilled with the status quo, they will preserve it.

Describing the Israeli- Arab alliance as an undisputed threat to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the paper lists the main ramifications of the alliance between the Zionist regime and Iran in three categories of political, military, and economic consequences.

Political Ramifications:

The paper suggests that there are two main political implications for Iran that are isolating the country in the international realm as well as creating crisis and insecurity domestically.

Hence, the authors argue that among the political consequences of the Arab-Israeli alliance for Iran, or among the objectives the Arab states and the Zionist regime are pursuing in forming this alliance, is to isolate Iran on the international stage and limit its diplomatic clout and strategic maneuverability. By cultivating close ties with Iran’s Arab neighbors, the Zionist regime aims to establish a regional bloc that can effectively challenge and undermine Iran’s interests. The potential normalization of relations between additional Arab nations and the Zionist regime could further exacerbate Iran’s regional isolation and impede its foreign policy objectives. The author contends that these political dynamics could have significant consequences for Iran’s position within the international community and its ability to pursue its strategic goals.

Delving into the potential implications of the Arab-Israeli alliance for Iran’s domestic stability and security, the authors maintain that the economic hardships and escalating regional tensions resulting from this partnership could incite political unrest and social discontent within Iran. As Iran’s economy comes under mounting pressure and its strategic position in the region is increasingly challenged, the Iranian government may face growing domestic opposition and calls for political reform.

Furthermore, the author examines the potential consequences of these domestic challenges for Iran’s political leadership, highlighting the need for Iran’s leaders to adeptly navigate the intricate interplay between domestic and foreign policy challenges in order to maintain stability and ensure the nation’s long-term security and prosperity. The article suggests that the domestic implications of the Arab-Israeli alliance could prove to be just as significant as its external consequences, particularly in terms of shaping Iran’s future political trajectory and its ability to effectively respond to the mounting pressures it faces from the Arab-Israeli coalition.

Military-Security Ramifications:

The article offers a thorough examination of the military-security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli coalition, shedding light on the various ways in which it could undermine Iran’s strategic interests and jeopardize regional stability. According to the authors, with regard to the military ramifications of the Israeli-Arab normalization, there are three main concerns for Iran: the strengthening of the Zionist regime’s military influence in the Persian Gulf region, the emergence of espionage and sabotage attempts against Iran, and the further militarization of the Persian Gulf states. The expansion of military cooperation between Arab states and the Zionist regime, encompassing areas such as defense technology, intelligence-sharing, and the establishment of military bases, could inflame regional tensions and create new security challenges for Iran.

The author analyzes the potential implications of this emerging security architecture for Iran’s strategic posture, considering the possibility that Iran may seek to further strengthen and modernize its military capabilities in response to these perceived threats. This could involve the acquisition of advanced weapons systems, the development of indigenous military technologies, and the expansion of Iran’s military footprint in the region. However, these efforts could also lead to additional economic burdens for Iran, as well as the potential for a regional arms race, which could further destabilize the Middle East. The article emphasizes that the military-security implications of the Arab-Israeli alliance could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s overall stability and security, as well as for Iran’s ability to protect its national interests and maintain its strategic position in the face of mounting external pressures.

Economic Ramifications:

The author provides a detailed exploration of the economic consequences of the Arab-Israeli partnership, emphasizing its adverse impact on Iran’s fiscal well-being. The two main economic concerns the authors raise include increasing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s costs of economy, and decreasing Iran’s economic balance. Accordingly, the emerging alliance has the potential to significantly disrupt Iran’s trade relations with neighboring countries, particularly those in the Persian Gulf region, which have historically played a pivotal role in Iran’s economic landscape. The article highlights the ways in which the Arab-Israeli alliance could stifle Iran’s ambitious economic aspirations, as outlined in its twenty-year vision document launched in 2014, by limiting its access to critical regional markets and resources.

Moreover, the article provides an analysis of the effects of international sanctions on Iran’s economy, particularly those targeting its oil exports. These sanctions, imposed by the United States and its allies, have levied significant strains on Iran’s economy, rendering it more vulnerable to external pressures. The Arab-Israeli alliance could contribute to the exacerbation of these economic pressures, as Arab states may be more inclined to adhere to the sanctions regime and limit their economic engagement with Iran. In response to these mounting economic challenges, Iran may be compelled to reevaluate its economic strategies and seek alternative sources of revenue to mitigate the adverse effects of these sanctions. The author contends that the economic ramifications of the Arab-Israeli alliance could have profound consequences for Iran’s fiscal stability, growth prospects, and overall economic development.

To conclude, the article underscores the potential consequences of the Arab-Israeli alliance for Iran’s international standing, highlighting that Iran faces the risk of regional isolation and diplomatic marginalization as a result of this partnership. Additionally, the article explores the economic ramifications of the alliance, particularly in terms of the heightened economic pressures that Iran could confront due to the combined effects of international sanctions and limited access to critical regional markets.

In the military-security domain, the author analyzes the potential consequences of the Arab-Israeli coalition for Iran’s strategic posture, emphasizing the heightened security challenges that Iran could encounter as a result of the expanding military cooperation between Arab states and the Zionist regime. The article also considers the possibility that Iran may seek to bolster its military capabilities in response to these threats, which could lead to a regional arms race and further destabilize the Middle East.

Furthermore, the article delves into the potential implications of the Arab-Israeli alliance for Iran’s domestic stability, examining the ways in which economic hardships and escalating regional tensions could incite political unrest and social discontent within Iran. The author contends that these domestic challenges could have significant consequences for Iran’s political leadership, as they may be compelled to balance competing priorities and adapt their strategies to maintain stability and ensure the nation’s long-term security and prosperity.

In sum, this article provides a detailed and insightful exploration of the Arab-Israeli alliance and its potential consequences for Iran’s national security. By offering a multidimensional perspective on this critical issue, the authors contribute to the broader scholarly discourse on the evolving dynamics of regional security and cooperation in the Middle East, while also shedding light on the potential long-term implications of this partnership for Iran’s strategic posture, economic development, and domestic stability.

Critical Reflection:

The article provides an extensive analysis of the Arab-Israeli alliance and its potential consequences for Iran’s national security. While the author offers a comprehensive exploration of the historical, political, economic, military, and domestic dimensions of this partnership, some aspects of the analysis could benefit from further examination or consideration of alternative perspectives.

One potential area for further discussion is the agency of Arab states in shaping the Arab-Israeli alliance. While the article acknowledges the role of shared security concerns in driving this realignment of interests, it primarily emphasizes the Zionist regime’s efforts to forge closer ties with Iran’s Arab neighbors. A deeper examination of the motivations and strategic calculations of Arab states themselves could offer additional insights into the evolving dynamics of regional security and cooperation in the Middle East.

Additionally, the article’s focus on the potential implications of the Arab-Israeli alliance for Iran’s national security could be complemented by a more nuanced exploration of the opportunities that this partnership might also present for Iran. While the article highlights the challenges and risks associated with this realignment, it could also consider how Iran might adapt its policies or engage diplomatically to mitigate these risks and capitalize on potential opportunities for regional cooperation and dialogue.

In the domestic realm, the article identifies the potential implications of the Arab-Israeli alliance for Iran’s stability, but could further investigate the role of internal political dynamics and civil society in shaping Iran’s response to these challenges. By considering the interplay between state and non-state actors within Iran, the analysis could offer a more comprehensive understanding of the potential long-term consequences of this partnership for Iran’s political landscape.

In conclusion, while the article offers a thorough and multifaceted analysis of the Arab-Israeli alliance and its potential consequences for Iran’s national security, there are several areas where the discussion could be expanded or alternative perspectives could be considered. By incorporating a broader range of factors and actors, the analysis could provide an even more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics shaping regional security and cooperation in the Middle East.

By: Setareh Saddiqi, CIGA Non-resident Researcher