{"id":9481,"date":"2024-04-06T11:09:22","date_gmt":"2024-04-06T11:09:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?p=9481"},"modified":"2024-04-06T11:10:51","modified_gmt":"2024-04-06T11:10:51","slug":"breaking-with-convention-zeitenwende-and-the-traditional-pillars-of-german-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?p=9481","title":{"rendered":"Breaking with Convention? Zeitenwende and the Traditional Pillars of German Foreign Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"9481\" class=\"elementor elementor-9481\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d679564 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d679564\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-cb739fd\" data-id=\"cb739fd\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-473ce66 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"473ce66\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><b>Author<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.st-andrews.ac.uk\/international-relations\/people\/bb57\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bernhard Blumenau<\/span><\/a><\/p><p><b>Affiliation: <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/cstpv.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV)<\/span><\/a><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p><p><b>Organization \/Publisher: <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ia\/pages\/About\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">International Affairs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><b>Date\/Place:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> November 2, 2022\/ UK<\/span><\/p><p><b>Number of Pages: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">19<\/span><\/p><p><b>Link: <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ia\/iiac166\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ia\/iiac166<\/span><\/a><\/p><p><b>Keywords:<\/b> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Zeitenwende, German, Foreign Policy, Ukraine Invasion, Scholz Speech<\/span><\/i><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Brief:<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This article examines the main implications of Germany\u2019s new foreign policy, often termed the Zeitenwende doctrine. It examines how the new approach to foreign policy changed or maintained long-held assumptions that underlie Germany&#8217;s international relations.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author tries to address:\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The major traditional characteristics of Germany&#8217;s foreign policy: Westbindung (integration into the West).<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The historical origins and dilemmas of current German foreign policy, as well as why history is important for understanding contemporary politics.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Why the Zeitenwende speech is so important.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Zeitenwende:\u00a0<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Following Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, the German government declared a major shift in its security and foreign policy on February 27, 2022. Chancellor Olaf Scholz used the word Zeitenwende, which means &#8220;historic turning point\u201d and &#8220;historical geopolitical shift&#8221; in German.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author argues that the German foreign policy has often remained stable across governmental coalitions. Germany&#8217;s foreign policy has been built on several core principles for many years, but the turning point came when Putin recognized Ukraine&#8217;s breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in late February 2022. Things began to change in Germany as:\u00a0<\/span><\/p><ul><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The federal government finally suspended the Nord Stream 2 project.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Berlin allowed weapons shipments to Ukraine\u2014a major reversal of a decades-long principle of not sending weapons to crisis regions.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Olaf Scholz launched a new foreign policy strategy launched in a landmark speech.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In his speech, Scholz also announced a series of sanctions on Russia and a commitment to new European armament projects, to armed drones, and to equipping the armed forces. The author argues that the shift in German foreign policy was important as it very clearly subjugated trade interests to foreign and security\u2013political considerations given the major disruption and damage to German businesses that could result from the sanctions imposed upon Russia by Germany and the EU.<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Zeitenwende and its Impact on German Foreign Policy:<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In this part of the study, Blumenau examines the core concepts of German foreign policy traditions and how Zeitenwende will affect them.<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Starting with<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Westbindung and European Integration, the author describes Germany\u2019s relationship with the \u2018West\u2019 prior to 1949 as somewhat complicated, though there were strong cultural, trade and dynastic links in the nineteenth century<\/span><b>. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0At the end of World War I, chained by the Treaty of Versailles, the states of the Soviet Union laid the groundwork for close cooperation in a variety of fields, including military cooperation. As a result, Germany saw itself as being in the middle of Europe, between East and West, it was only with the end of World War Two that\u00a0the country was finally forced to pick a side.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author attempts to clarify that despite many of the changes and events that occurred, Germany&#8217;s basic orientation and self-perception was that of a Western nation, and it remained a staunch supporter of the two important western projects of cooperation: NATO and European integration. In 2022, Scholz reconfirmed Germany&#8217;s commitment to the West. Despite his hesitant policy before the Russian invasion, with his speech, he underlined Berlin&#8217;s commitment to European defense, and that European integration has been central to the country&#8217;s identity since the continent emerged from the ruins of World War Two.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author argues that Germany was often criticized for not showing enough leadership and for stalling rather than pushing European cooperation, for example when the EU was in a state of permanent crisis in the 2010s, but the decisions taken by the German government at that time must be understood in the context of the substantial domestic reluctance to bail out southern European countries. Scholz explicitly highlighted how important the EU was for Germany, calling it Germany&#8217;s \u2018framework for action\u2019. European integration has been a basic pillar of German postwar foreign policy, and it will continue to remain as such.<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Second Foreign Policy Pillar; Multilateralism, the Rules-Based International Order and NATO:<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author highlights here the historical context of Germany&#8217;s foreign policy approach. After World War Two, Germany learned the lesson of not pursuing its own way and prioritized multilateralism and a legalistic approach in international relations. Germany\u2019s limited sovereignty during the Cold War meant that the country had to rely on international law to pursue its interests. The author also references a quote from Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who emphasized the importance of choosing &#8220;Recht (law) over Macht (power)&#8221; in foreign policy decisions.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Zeitenwende\u00a0reaffirmed this principle. The author discussed how Scholz&#8217;s speech marks a significant shift in post-Cold War German politics, as it reaffirms Germany&#8217;s strong commitment to multilateralism and international law. It also marks a break from the persistent criticism that Germany was not doing enough to support NATO in terms of the Bundeswehr&#8217;s capabilities, manpower or budget, by positioning Germany as a responsible and committed member of the Western alliance. Scholz&#8217;s promise to increase the German defense budget and raise annual military spending to more than 2 per cent of GDP, in addition to setting up a special fund of 100 billion euro, underscores Germany&#8217;s renewed focus on the ability to defend Europe, as well as its commitment to its alliances.<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Third Foreign Policy Pillar; Hesitant Leadership:<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bernhard Blumenau argues that Berlin is often perceived to be shying away from leadership. In that vein, Germany is described as not \u2018normal\u2019 in that it does not seek the international responsibility and influence commensurate with its standing as Europe\u2019s most populous country and one of its most advanced economies.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author thinks that <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">when analyzing this constant feature of Germany foreign policy, it is important to emphasize hesitation, rather than lack of leadership per se, as Germany has led several times, especially within Europe. Yet often it does not assume leadership on its own initiative, but is pushed into it, accepting it only with hesitation and delay.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The reasons for this reluctance are historical and Germany hesitates to show leadership because of the associated costs\u2014financial and economic, or possibly in terms of body bags, when military intervention is needed. As Hanns Maull has put it, \u2018it is far from clear to what extent German society really stands behind the ambitions of a \u201cresponsible\u201d power once the going gets difficult and the bills come in.\u2019<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But even before the Ukraine war in 2022, constant pressures from European and transatlantic partners have led to a growing, yet uneasy, awareness in Germany that the country would have to play a more prominent leadership role in the future. When Germany did exert leadership in the recent past\u2014eventually in the euro crisis, during the 2014 Crimea invasion, or in the 2015 refugee crisis\u2014this was often as a consequence of enormous pressure, and other European powers\u2019 inability to lead.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In his\u00a0<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Zeitenwende<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0speech, Scholz did promise more resolute action to secure and defend Europe<\/span><b>, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">though he remained silent on the specifics. Rather than leading with a new vision for Europe, his speech was focused on the changes Germany itself had to implement<\/span><b>. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Scholz continued to reject a leadership role within Europe, however this refusal of leadership was now coming under criticism from people within his own coalition. That criticism might indicate a growing awareness among the political elites, including the foreign minister, that Germany now has to show more leadership. This need will become even more pressing if anti-European parties continue to gain ground in Europe.<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>Fourth Foreign Policy Pillar; Ostpolitik and Wandel Durch Handel:\u00a0<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author discusses Germany&#8217;s complex relationship with Russia, highlighting the impact of Willy Brandt&#8217;s Ostpolitik in the 1970s, which led to Germany having significant influence on Russia after the end of the Soviet Union. However, the heyday of European-Russian relations ended in 2006, with the prospect of Russia using Europe&#8217;s dependence on its gas as a potential instrument of blackmail.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Despite this, successive German governments continued Ostpolitik and engaged with Russia, tying it into European institutions and restraints. Energy was at the core of Berlin&#8217;s policy towards Putin, with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline being a key example. However, the problem with this policy was highlighted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which left Germany facing the dilemma of wanting to pursue a much tougher policy on Putin, including sanctions against Russian oil and gas, but increased dependence on these fuels meant that such boycotts would come at huge costs for Germany&#8217;s industry and population.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0The author also discusses the concept of Wandel durch Handel (change through trade), which was supposed to lead to modernization and political liberalization in Russia, but ultimately failed due to Putin&#8217;s focus on trade as an instrument for geopolitical ambitions. The Ukraine crisis of 2022 completely annulled Germany&#8217;s Ostpolitik, and while dialogue and diplomacy will continue, the relationship between Moscow and Berlin will remain icy for a long time, with a return to the pre-invasion relationship unthinkable. However, the author notes that &#8220;Wandel durch Handel&#8221; might continue with China and other states due to Germany&#8217;s economic dependence on them.<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>The Fifth Pillar; Non-Military Foreign Policy:<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author assumes that one of the most successful policies and profound traditions in postwar German foreign affairs is demilitarization: an anti-militarist policy coupled with checkbook diplomacy and the rejection of the use of military force and interventions in external affairs.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With the end of the Cold War, Germany had grown comfortable in the \u2018security cocoon\u2019 that the US and NATO provided and wanted to focus on the economic development of East Germany. Welfare state projects were prioritized over military spending as Germans wanted to cash in on the &#8220;peace dividend.&#8221; Yet, the 2014 Crimean crisis forced German security and foreign policy institutes to reconsider their positions. Since then, a number of presidents and ministers have urged Germany to be ready to take on more leadership and responsibility on the world stage. Yet, nothing changed in terms of defense strategies: the Bundeswehr&#8217;s underfunding was maintained, and the reluctance to use force persisted.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The author focused on Scholz&#8217;s Zeitenwende speech marking a significant shift. In his speech, Scholz acknowledged that an effective military was indispensable to counter Russian aggression, that hefty investments were needed to update the Bundeswehr, and that Germany would require \u2018strength of our own.\u2019 He also stressed the value of continuing diplomacy but emphasized that he did not want to keep \u2018talking simply for the sake of talking\u2019. Germany&#8217;s complex notion of security was underscored with his \u2018awareness that the Bundeswehr alone does not have the means to contain all future threats. We therefore need strong development cooperation. The Zeitenwende speech did not constitute a complete U-turn in Germany&#8217;s non-military tradition or its security policy. Scholz did recognize the continuing value of diplomacy and other means of conflict prevention. Yet the chancellor now openly admitted that a \u2018powerful, cutting-edge, progressive Bundeswehr\u2019 was also needed.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Zeitenwende marks Germany&#8217;s reality check as its hopes that Europe could move beyond its troublesome, military past, could focus on trade and welfare, and would turn into a peaceful utopia were not to be. By acknowledging the need for military strength\u2014if only to defend the European order\u2014Scholz publicly broke a taboo, and he did so to cheering applause, within and without the Bundestag. This was a watershed moment.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bernhard Blumenau concludes his article by confirming that German foreign policy is built on the premise of stability and on core traditional notions of how to conduct foreign affairs. This makes it difficult for the country to adapt quickly to changing circumstances, especially on questions related to war and peace. However, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Zeitenwende<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> confirmed and continued Germany&#8217;s successful foreign policy traditions while providing a chance to abandon the more problematic ones. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Zeitenwende<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> was definitely a turning point because it signified Germany&#8217;s acceptance of Europe\u2019s realities in the twenty-first century. It will likely define the guidelines for German foreign policy for at least the next decade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><b>By: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Chourouk Mestour, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ph D Candidate in International Relations<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><br \/><br \/><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Author: Bernhard Blumenau Affiliation: The Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV)\u00a0 Organization \/Publisher: International Affairs\u00a0 Date\/Place: November 2, 2022\/ UK Number of Pages: 19 Link: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ia\/iiac166 Keywords: Zeitenwende, German, Foreign Policy, Ukraine Invasion, Scholz Speech \u00a0 Brief: This article examines the main implications of Germany\u2019s new foreign policy, often termed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":9482,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"blocksy_meta":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy.png",1920,1080,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-300x169.png",300,169,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-768x432.png",768,432,true],"large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-1024x576.png",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-1536x864.png",1536,864,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy.png",1920,1080,false]},"author_info":{"info":["CIGA Staff"]},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?cat=44\" rel=\"category\">Europe, Russia, Oceania<\/a>","tag_info":"Europe, Russia, Oceania","comment_count":"0","rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy.png",1920,1080,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy.png",1920,1080,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy.png",1920,1080,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-300x169.png",300,169,true],"large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-1024x576.png",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy-1536x864.png",1536,864,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Breaking-with-Convention-Zeitenwende-and-the-Traditional-Pillars-of-German-Foreign-Policy.png",1920,1080,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"CIGA 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