{"id":8790,"date":"2024-04-04T21:07:41","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T21:07:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?p=8790"},"modified":"2024-04-04T21:09:41","modified_gmt":"2024-04-04T21:09:41","slug":"what-if-the-war-in-ukraine-doesnt-end-the-global-consequences-of-a-long-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?p=8790","title":{"rendered":"What If the War in Ukraine Doesn\u2019t End? The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"8790\" class=\"elementor elementor-8790\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-163b93a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"163b93a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9f017fb\" data-id=\"9f017fb\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2a4fd3c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2a4fd3c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><b>Authors: <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/russian-federation\/2022-04-20\/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end#author-info\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage<\/span><\/a><\/p><p><b>Affiliation: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">K\u00f6rber Foundation; Catholic University of America and Former Policy Planning Staff at the US State Department (2014-2016 Russia\/Ukraine Portfolio)<\/span><\/p><p><b>Organization\/Publisher: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Foreign Affairs<\/span><\/p><p><b>Date\/Place: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">April 20, 2022\/USA<\/span><\/p><p><b>Type of Literature: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Analysis<\/span><\/p><p><b>Word Count: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1500<\/span><\/p><p><b>Link:<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/russian-federation\/2022-04-20\/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/russian-federation\/2022-04-20\/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end<\/span><\/a><\/p><p><b>Keywords:<\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Russia, Ukraine, War, Conflict<\/span><\/i><\/p><p><b>Brief:<\/b><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The authors report that after several weeks of the Russia-Ukraine war have been completed, neither side appears to be close to achieving their objectives any time soon. So the main question becomes whose side time is on if the war does not end soon? The authors claim that a protracted conflict will benefit Russia, as it will devastate Ukraine, reduce support for Ukraine, cause a global economic and energy crisis, and increase the risks of spillover into Europe. They contend that continuous military support for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia&#8217;s energy sector in particular, and continuous global imaging to maintain support for Ukraine are required to achieve the desired results for the West. Putin has several reasons not to end the war soon: Russia is nowhere near achieving its objectives; an abrupt decision to end the war would be politically damaging for Putin; a long war will put pressure on NATO, especially if it results in waning support for Ukraine in the West; and, finally, if Trump or others like him win upcoming elections in the West, they may strike a deal with Putin at the expense of NATO. Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side, a quick end to the war on Russian terms is not an option; a prolonged war will allow it to strike a better peace deal than a quick and complete surrender on Russian terms. But as the war in Ukraine continues, it will pose serious security, economic, and migration challenges for Europe, as well as for the rest of the world. Therefore, rather than turning the Ukraine war into a Hollywood-style story, the West should devise a long-term strategy to persuade the Western and global public to consistently support Ukraine. The outcome of this war will set the precedent for the future liberal democratic order. The West&#8217;s foreign policy agenda should prioritize unwavering support for Ukraine.<\/span><\/p><p><br \/><b>By: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hammad Siddique, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">CIGA Research Associate<\/span><\/i><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Authors: Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage Affiliation: K\u00f6rber Foundation; Catholic University of America and Former Policy Planning Staff at the US State Department (2014-2016 Russia\/Ukraine Portfolio) Organization\/Publisher: Foreign Affairs Date\/Place: April 20, 2022\/USA Type of Literature: Analysis Word Count: 1500 Link: https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/russian-federation\/2022-04-20\/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, War, Conflict Brief: The authors report that after several weeks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":8791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe"],"blocksy_meta":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg.webp",1920,1280,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-300x200.webp",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-768x512.webp",768,512,true],"large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-1024x683.webp",1024,683,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-1536x1024.webp",1536,1024,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg.webp",1920,1280,false]},"author_info":{"info":["CIGA Staff"]},"category_info":"<a href=\"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?cat=44\" rel=\"category\">Europe, Russia, Oceania<\/a>","tag_info":"Europe, Russia, Oceania","comment_count":"0","rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg.webp",1920,1280,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg.webp",1920,1280,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg.webp",1920,1280,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-300x200.webp",300,200,true],"large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-1024x683.webp",1024,683,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg-1536x1024.webp",1536,1024,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/230302_ukraine_overview_lg.webp",1920,1280,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"CIGA Staff","author_link":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?author=23"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?cat=44\" rel=\"category\">Europe, Russia, Oceania<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Authors: Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage Affiliation: K\u00f6rber Foundation; Catholic University of America and Former Policy Planning Staff at the US State Department (2014-2016 Russia\/Ukraine Portfolio) Organization\/Publisher: Foreign Affairs Date\/Place: April 20, 2022\/USA Type of Literature: Analysis Word Count: 1500 Link: https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/russian-federation\/2022-04-20\/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, War, Conflict Brief: The authors report that after several weeks&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}