{"id":5677,"date":"2024-03-30T15:06:59","date_gmt":"2024-03-30T15:06:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?p=5677"},"modified":"2024-03-30T15:08:45","modified_gmt":"2024-03-30T15:08:45","slug":"ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?p=5677","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia at risk of another long-term war"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Author:<\/b> Kjetil Tronvoll<\/span><\/a><\/p>

Affiliation:<\/b> Bj\u00f8rknes University College, Director of <\/span>Oslo Analytica<\/span><\/a><\/p>

Organization\/Publisher:<\/b> The Africa Report<\/span><\/a>, Jeune Afrique Media Group (JAMG); Ethiopia Insight<\/span><\/p>

Date\/Place:<\/b> February 3, 2021\/Paris, France<\/span><\/p>

Type of Literature:<\/b> Report<\/span><\/p>

Word Count:<\/b> 4308<\/span><\/p>

Link: <\/b>https:\/\/www.theafricareport.com\/63222\/ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>

Keywords:\u00a0 <\/b>War Crimes, Conflict Internationalization, Humanitarian Crisis.<\/span><\/i><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Brief:<\/b><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Addis Ababa\u2019s Tigrayan campaign was a moment of no return in Ethiopia\u2019s political scene, with root causes going back to the erosion and abolition of the government coalition of the Ethiopian Peoples\u2019 Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) by Abiy Ahmed in favour of his Prosperity Party. This alienated the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF), who consider the abolition of the EPRDF\u2014 dominated by Tigrayans\u2014as unconstitutional. The fear of an increase in Addis Ababa\u2019s centralized authority has fueled the Tigrayan vision of a de facto state, and the postponement of the 2020 general elections due to the pandemic was the tipping point. Tigray proceeded solo with elections, drawing outrage from Addis Ababa. The conflict started on November 3 and was internationalized immediately with Eritrea\u2019s entry; Abiy declared the operation over on November 28 when Ethiopian forces entered Mekelle, Tigray\u2019s capital. However, the conflict is far from over as the Tigrayan forces are preparing for a long fight, with thousands of casualties and a region void of services. Refugee eyewitnesses have reported widespread killing, torture and rape, with \u201cparticularly gruesome atrocities\u201d being committed by Eritrean forces and the Amhara militia; additionally, a possible famine could kill hundreds of thousands under a shell of an interim government. Further internationalization of the conflict via Sudanese and Egyptian intervention will prolong the war, all the while Abiy refuses mediation. Diplomatic denial by most actors doesn\u2019t help with Addis Ababa blocking relief efforts, with most turning a blind eye to a humanitarian disaster. But the Biden Administration may be a change in this trend. Nonetheless, the damage is done, as Abiy\u2019s Tigray interim government is seen as a tool of the central government. This is a war of annihilation for Tigrayans, who are increasing their resolve for self-determination. Negotiations for a loose federal system may save Ethiopia’s territorial integrity, but it must happen before the 1979 scenario is repeated.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

By:<\/b> Omar Fili, CIGA Research Associate<\/span><\/p>



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Author: Kjetil Tronvoll Affiliation: Bj\u00f8rknes University College, Director of Oslo Analytica Organization\/Publisher: The Africa Report, Jeune Afrique Media Group (JAMG); Ethiopia Insight Date\/Place: February 3, 2021\/Paris, France Type of Literature: Report Word Count: 4308 Link: https:\/\/www.theafricareport.com\/63222\/ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war\/ Keywords:\u00a0 War Crimes, Conflict Internationalization, Humanitarian Crisis. \u00a0 Brief: \u00a0 Addis Ababa\u2019s Tigrayan campaign was a moment of no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":5678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-nile-valley-north-africa"],"blocksy_meta":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-300x169.webp",300,169,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-768x432.webp",768,432,true],"large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-1024x576.webp",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false]},"author_info":{"info":["CIGA Staff"]},"category_info":"Nile Valley & N.Africa<\/a>","tag_info":"Nile Valley & N.Africa","comment_count":"0","rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-300x169.webp",300,169,true],"large":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war-1024x576.webp",1024,576,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war.webp",1280,720,false]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"CIGA Staff","author_link":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/?author=22"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"Nile Valley & N.Africa<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Author: Kjetil Tronvoll Affiliation: Bj\u00f8rknes University College, Director of Oslo Analytica Organization\/Publisher: The Africa Report, Jeune Afrique Media Group (JAMG); Ethiopia Insight Date\/Place: February 3, 2021\/Paris, France Type of Literature: Report Word Count: 4308 Link: https:\/\/www.theafricareport.com\/63222\/ethiopia-at-risk-of-another-long-term-war\/ Keywords:\u00a0 War Crimes, Conflict Internationalization, Humanitarian Crisis. \u00a0 Brief: \u00a0 Addis Ababa\u2019s Tigrayan campaign was a moment of no…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geopoliticalcompass.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}