Peacemaking in Afghanistan: Procedural and Substantive Challenges

Saima Rashid
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Brief:

The author in her article discusses the current difficulties faced by the Afghan Intelligentsia to establish a consensus on the future political course of action. The stakeholders include political elites, civil society, academia, business community and Taliban. Taliban in 2013 received a de-facto recognition by the international community when they had been allowed to open their office in Doha, Qatar. The author divided the current peace process in two phases, the National Process and the Regional Consensus. According to her, the national process includes all the masses specifically the youth bulge of Afghanistan that was born in the Post 9/11 era. Moreover, the input from opposition and Northern Alliance that has ruled Afghanistan during the Pre-Soviet invasion era is also essential including the feedback of Taliban who ruled Afghanistan in late 1990s. Furthermore, she describes the role of the regional powers including China, Iran, Pakistan and India in facilitating the peace process. She tried to explain the foreign policy shift in Kabul after the US invasion when Afghanistan and India established close ties over their mutual hostility toward Pakistan. The international community particularly the United States perceives Pakistan as an influence on Taliban, therefore any deadlock with the insurgent group is believed to be instigated by Islamabad. The author concludes that the current peace process is only possible by the sincere involvement of all the political parties and civil society of Afghanistan including Taliban, and those regional actors have to play the crucial role of facilitators rather than spoilers.

Asia’s Future is Now

Saima Rashid
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Brief: 

The study observes that global economies have shifted their attention towards Asia, with its share of the global GDP to become 50% by 2040. The region has shown tremendous economic progress along with Human development. Its growth story has changed the question from how Asia will rise, to how Asia will lead. The study also indicates that Asia is becoming the center for structural shifts in trade patterns. Apart from becoming self-reliant, the region has made the most of labor-intensive industries and will have to move towards infrastructure, workforce skills, and productivity, which will gain more importance in the future as the R&D (Research & Development) innovations are at a constant rise. Trade in knowledge-intensive services is another gap to fill. Rapid evolution of corporate eco-system has been seen as Asia’s share of top performing firms globally, which has increased from 19% to 30%. Moreover, China’s AI (Artificial Intelligence) initiatives and significant steps towards digitization by India and Indonesia have attracted innovation hubs and huge amount of venture capitals to the region. The study also highlights the dramatic drop in poverty in the region, which makes it the greatest economic success story in the world.  

Oil and Institutional Stasis in the Persian Gulf

Saima Rashid
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Brief:

Explaining the resource curse is the Dutch Disease theory that warns states with abundant resources, especially oil and gas, from economic failures and lack of development. The author indicates that wealth in the form of oil and gas may have stunned institutional development, leaving Gulf states with an institutional curse, even though oil has been an economic blessing. He also argues that it “is not a resource curse that causes underdevelopment but an institutions curse”. The author explains that the Gulf states oil wealth was discovered at a time when no economies or official institutions were there to be lost. So the room for economic development was different from the experience in the Netherlands and other countries. However, necessary variables need to be considered and firmly understood now in order to reach sound conclusions. First, “narrow economic development” is not the same as “economic development.” Second, economic development that is a result of one sector is an indicator of high risk. Gulf states income is from oil and gas, which leaves other industries and the larger private sector marginalized. Third, Gulf states have pegged their currencies against the USD which helps in avoiding much of the economic problems attributed to the Dutch Disease. Added to a weak institutional infrastructure, limited political independence, and the war in Yemen that consumes their wealth as well as the Yemenis’ lives, all of that would only mean that the Gulf States have much to worry about in the near future.   

Israel’s Secret war in Sudan

Saima Rashid
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Brief:

In reference to the protests in April 2019 in Sudan, which overthrew President Omar Al-Bashir, Colmáin contested the mainstream media’s depiction of the development as a popular uprising against an oppressive dictator. He argued that a deep inquiry of the country’s complex geopolitical and historical account demonstrates that global power (US/Israel) played a crucial role in Sudan’s political crisis and removal of a hostile regime to their strategic interests. Although some analysts dared to highlight the globalist force’s long term aim of weakening Sudan, Israel’s involvement and systematic destabilization of the country has been ignored. The author argues that Israel has played a significant role in the turmoil as well as in the conflicts in Darfur and South Sudan which have received extensive media coverage since 2003. However, these mainstream media have misrepresented the developments as mere ethnic conflicts between Arabs and black Africans, overlooking the complex geopolitical motivations that underpin these conflict zones. The political crisis and conflicts in these areas were highly attributed to Israel’s role of destabilizing the country mainly through arming and training of the rebel groups from neighboring bases like Chad, and mobilizing impressive international media campaigns against the Sudanese government due the latter’s sympathetic positions towards the Palestinians and Islamic political groups. The author concludes that Israel’s involvement in Sudan demonstrates how its policy of destabilization extends throughout the continent African.

The River Nile and Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam: Challenges to Egypt’s Security Approach

Saima Rashid
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Brief:

Highlighting the historical and contemporary trajectories of Egypt’s securitized positions over the river Nile, the article argued that new reality has emerged that needs to be dealt with by new means to ensure the benefit of all parties claiming shares over the Nile river. Both natural dynamics and man-made developments on the Nile water in the riparian countries pose unprecedented challenges to Egypt’s share of the Nile waters. While the river is hosting immense pressures from climate change and population growth of the riparian states, the construction of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam will reduce the flow of the Nile and this will have a great impact on the downstream countries, particularly Egypt. Meanwhile Egypt has been sticking to a security approach by presenting any developments in River Nile by upstream countries as a national security threat. The article argues that the policy of securitization of the Nile issue and reliance on colonial agreements are neither workable in modern times nor would it enable Egypt to maintain its historical water share from the river in the face of the present and future challenges. It recommends Egypt to de-securitize its policy on the Nile matter and engage in normal political negotiation process of bargaining towards multilateral solution for the benefit of all parties, and for Ethiopia to recognize Egypt’s need for water based on reasonable and fair distribution of resources to ensure mutual understanding, sustainable development, as well as peace and stability in Africa.

Middle East’s lost Decades: Development, Dissent and the Future of the Arab World

Saima Rashid
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Brief: 

The author examines “development” (both human and economic) in the Arab world after the Arab Spring in comparison to their status before 2011. The author proposes that although the situation as a whole is even worse now, there is something that has changed in the Arab world, which is the “Authoritarian Bargain” that Arab political regimes have rested on for many decades of their rule. This“Authoritarian Bargain” refers to the state’s provision of “jobs, security and services” in exchange for “political loyalty.” The author conducted a comparison between the political and economic situations before and after the Arab Spring based on providing some statistical figures from different Arab countries. She explained that before the uprisings a liberal economy was not followed by a liberal political sphere. It was only used by the Arab governments to guarantee and promote the cohesion and loyalty of the regime’s elites. However, after 2011 the situation was worse with respect to both the economic and political spheres. Arab citizens were no more confident about their political systems and this ended their passiveness. The article concluded that although the Arab Spring did not result in its aspired hopes or reforms, it managed to create a culture of political activism for the Arab revival. 

The Tunisia Model: Lessons from a New Arab Democracy

Saima Rashid
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Brief:

The author argues that despite the persisting inherited problems from Ben Ali’s regime coupled with the violent extremism that followed post-revolutionary Tunisia, as well as the painful consequences that succeeded the Arab uprisings, today’s Tunisian democratic model remains a source of hope for the Middle East countries. While the article’s main theme revolving around what lessons one could learn from the Tunisian model, the main idea was emphasizing two complementary factors on how to support democracy. In this respect, the major drive for change within the country correlated with foreign assistance, and the absence of pro-democracy agenda led by foreign countries, have helped Tunisia to achieve this feat. The author’s main targeted audiences may have been the region’s autocrats and activists. For autocrats, the protests movements across the Middle East is more than just a cautionary message, there are worse outcomes they could face with the mass protests today. But for activists, Tunisia is a beacon of hope for pro-democracy movements in the region. The article also relates to the current mass protests engulfing some Middle East countries since its argument is built on the previous experiences of the Arab failed pro-democracy movements. Even though the article is very useful, it would have been better if the author had emphasized more the role of foreign actors rather than the nature of the local leaders, since the hope of the masses turned into a disappointment due to the double standard of the international community over the countries of the Arab Spring.

There Will Be a One-State Solution

Saima Rashid
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Brief:

The article, “There will be a one-state solution” argues that the one-state solution is the only way forward to bring peace in the region. The author calls the two-state solution as dead, calling it unrealistic. The article discusses the failed attempt of the United Nations resolutions in rescuing the two-state solution, particularly the resolution no. 2334, which was passed in 2016, in order to end Israeli settlement activities in the occupied territories. But Israel never stopped the settlements though. The article also focuses on the US’s influence on the one state solution, particularly during the Trump administration. The author explores the one-state option in this article by recommending the creation of a new constitution, involving both Israel and Palestine, since the current situation only gives political rights to the Jews while denying them to the Palestinians. The new constitution will give equal rights for both. This article recommends to the Palestinian leaders to stop advocating the two-state Solution, and to support the one-state solution. The author’s take is very Utopian, where the seventy year struggle of the Palestinian identity and their right to self-determination are overlooked. 

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